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JOSH ROSENROTH

retired natural scientist
Articles Posted: 543  Links Seeded: 1546
Member Since: 3/2010  Last Seen: 5/16/2012

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Germany: Election disaster for Merkel - probably green-red gov't with first 'Eco-Green Governor' in Baden-Wuerttemberg

Sun Mar 27, 2011 1:03 PM EDT
world-news, europe, germany, beck, merkel, greens, spd, state-elections, cdu, fdp, baden-wuerttemberg, rhineland-palatinate, mappus, first-green-governor, blow-for-merkel
By Josh Rosenroth

First projection at 6 p.m. for state elections in Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate

If Merkel's series continues she'll probably be out of office in Q1,13 (best estimate).
Her current score is 0-3-1 (win/loss/draw).
In fall 2011, she'll likely to get 0-6-1.
In May 2012, SH'll go red-green -> 0-7-1

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Angela Merkel got her receipt from the electorate for her zig-zagging and turn-coating.

The voters in the heartland of German conservatism, namely the "role model state", called 'musterlaendle', Baden-Wuerttemberg, gave the death-blow for the current state ConLib government of Gov. Mappus (CDU) by giving 24.5 per cent and 23.5 per cent of the votes to the Eco-Greens and Social-Dems respectively, according to the first ZDF projection of 6 p.m., thereby confirming the Emnid poll of 03/25/2011.

The Social-Dems failed to come in second. A green-red coalition will probably be formed, the first ever with a green governor.

In Rhineland-Palatinate, the Social-Dems of Gov. Beck (SPD) lost their overall-majority. With only a slim margin of 0.5 pc, they are ahead of the conservative CDU with 36 to 35.5, the Greens coming in third with 15 per cent.

In Baden-Wuerttemberg, the liberal-democratic FDP has been within the margin of error for having seats in the Stuttgart State Assembly, the current percentage is 5.2 pc, too close to call.

In Rhineland-Palatinate, the FDP obviously failed to pass the 5 pc-hurdle for getting representatives.

The Leftists (former Communists of the former East German regional party PDS who formed a new party with a West German splinter party WASG) didn't reach the necessary quorum with 3 pc (BW) and 3.5 pc (RP), respectively.

Conclusion:

To maximize the blow to Merkel, the Social-Dems and Greens will probably join forces although other 'neutral' coalitions of Conservatives (CDU) and Social-Dems (SPD) are possible at present.

The score for Merkel after 4 elections: 0 wins - 3 losses - 1 draw.

By Mappus' defeat in BW, Merkel will be losing crucial six bloc-votes in the upper chamber of German parliament, the Bundesrat.

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  • Groups: 112th United States Congress, GermanVine, The Conservative Vine
  • Regions: Paris, Berlin, London, Washington DC
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Josh Rosenroth

The 'special' election procedure in Baden-Wuerttemberg (BW) will likely expand the 120-member parliament by 32 surplus members due to overlapping and adjustment mandates.

This complicated election system is going to additionally cost the people in B.-W. almost 2.500.000 euros ($3.5m) for the 'extra seats' - provided by a complex 2-tier-system of direct votes and proportional distribution and a difficult compensation calculation.

Nevertheless, it's always a win-win for all party colors who get additional members of state parliament by an intrisically flawed system that regularly 'pumps up' the size of the state assembly.

Last time the 2006-2011 B.-W. 'Landtag' had 139 seats (meaning only 19 surplus members).

    Reply#1 - Sun Mar 27, 2011 1:30 PM EDT
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